Comparative analysis of Counter-insurgency in Somalia.
Date: 28 July, 2025
By: Othman A. Mahamud
Security & Counterterrorism Analyst
Abstract: The Federal Government of Somalia’s 2022 offensive despite International support has stalled, with al-Shabaab reclaiming territory and posing a renewed threat to Mogadishu. In contrast, the northeastern state of Puntland has achieved notable counterterrorism success through Operation “Hilaac” (Lightning), a series of strategic, locally driven campaigns that have dismantled ISIS-Somalia’s infrastructure in its mountain strongholds. This divergence is not simply a matter of tactics or international assistance levels, but reflects a deeper interplay of structural differences - specifically, the nature of the insurgent threat, the level of political cohesion, the architecture of security forces, and the model of external support. Thus, this report provides a comparative analysis of these two concurrent conflicts within Somalia, offering insight into the structural conditions that drive security outcomes and drawing strategic implications for both Somali actors and the international community.
Divergent Fronts in a Fractured State
The security landscape of Somalia in 2025 presents a stark and instructive paradox. In the country's south and central regions, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its international allies, including the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), find themselves locked in a protracted and increasingly desperate struggle against a resurgent Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin. Despite years of extensive international assistance, the FGS offensive, launched with great optimism in 2022, has stalled, with al-Shabaab recapturing significant territory and posing a direct threat to the capital, Mogadishu. Simultaneously, in the semi-autonomous northeastern state of Puntland, a dramatically different narrative has unfolded. Through a series of methodical and determined operations codenamed "Hilaac" (Lightning), Puntland regional security forces have achieved remarkable and tangible success, systematically dismantling the infrastructure of the Islamic State's Somali affiliate (ISIS-Somalia) in its mountain strongholds (al-Miskat). This localized counter-terrorism victory stands in sharp contrast to the national-level counter-insurgency stalemate in the south. This report seeks to dissect this paradox. The divergence in outcomes is not merely a function of battlefield tactics or the quantity of aid received. It is, more fundamentally, the result of a complex interplay of four interconnected variables that define the character of each conflict. These are: (1) the nature and scale of the respective insurgent threats; (2) the political cohesion and governance capacity of the state actors involved; (3) the architecture and accountability of their security forces; and (4) the specific model of international support they receive. This analysis will argue that Puntland's success represents a case of a politically unified regional entity leveraging targeted external support against a geographically contained and structurally weaker adversary. Conversely, the FGS's persistent failures highlight how deep-seated political fragmentation, corruption and unresolved questions of statehood can neutralize the impact of massive, yet diffuse, international military assistance against an entrenched, national-level insurgency that has evolved into a proto-state. By systematically comparing these two distinct conflicts within a single nation, this report will provide a nuanced explanation for their divergent trajectories and offer strategic implications for Somali stakeholders and the international community.